‘Time to lower the odds’ on a T-Mobile/Sprint deal, says MoffettNathanson

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MoffettNathanson analyst analyst Craig Moffett said Tuesday that he was lowering his odds of a T-Mobile US Inc. and Sprint Corp. merger to “less than a coin toss.” He called two recent announcements from T-Mobile around pricing and broadband plans in rural markets “Hail Mary” moves that wouldn’t have been made by “a team that was ahead.” Moffett is concerned about recent reports suggesting that state attorneys general could sue in federal court to block the deal approval. “The fact that the DOJ’s own merger guidelines from 2010 (here) make the case that this deal should be presumptively rejected mean that the states would have to know they would have a good chance of winning in court,” he wrote. He assigns new odds of deal completion at 33%, down from 50% earlier, though he admits the calculation process wasn’t precisely scientific. T-Mobile shares have gained 7% in the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 , which has risen 14%.

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