American depositary receipts of China’s electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc. extended their rally on Thursday, also lifting ADRs of competitors Li Auto Inc. and XPeng Inc. a day after analysts at Citi raised their price target on Nio and started coverage of Li and XPeng. The Citi analysts lifted their target on Nio’s ADR price to $46.40, from $33.20, “to factor in our increasingly positive sector outlook, and the higher upside prospects from the (Nio’s) autonomous driving subscription business model,” they said in a note this week. The target implies an upside around 17% from Nio’s Thursday prices. The analysts rated Li Auto at the equivalent of hold, saying that the company will break even in 2022 thanks to sales volume growth and margins improvement. Citi rated XPeng at buy, expecting the company to post 57% sales volume growth in the next five years and break even in 2024. Nio’s ADRs have gained 900% this year, compared with gains around 9% for the S&P 500 index.
XPeng’s BEV market share to double to 6% by 22E
We expect XPeng’s market share to surge to 6% of China’s BEV sales in 22E, from 3% in 20E, given its 1) competitive products with highest NEDC range in the market (P7: 706m/charge), 2) rapid autonomous driving technology development (Current: L2, 1Q21: L3) with more frequent upgrades providing higher visibility, 3) its position as one of the few suppliers with FOTA upgrade capability (delivering best-in
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